The 10-Second Version (AI Summary)
What happened: A Drive Research survey of 1,405 U.S. adults found 64% believe retailers raise prices before Black Friday to make discounts look bigger.
Why it matters: Dealers head into year-end selling facing shoppers who already doubt the price tag on everything.
What to do: Put your real pricing history in front of shoppers and invite them to check it.
AI-generated summary, reviewed by the ASOTU team.
Near one of our team members, the local Food Lion runs sales all year for anyone with a membership card. The card is free and the deals almost never stop. Eventually you start to wonder: why isn't the deal price just the price?
Holiday shoppers are asking that question about nearly everyone this year.
Do shoppers still believe Black Friday deals are real?
Fewer of them do, and we dug into why on the Automotive State of the Union podcast. A Drive Research survey of 1,405 U.S. adults, fielded Oct. 6-9, found 71% say Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals aren't as good as they used to be. Another 64% believe retailers raise prices beforehand so the advertised discounts aren't genuine.
Drive Research's director of marketing, Emily Rodgers, described how a 20%-off banner lands with those shoppers now:
"It feels like a regular Tuesday."
Budgets are tightening too, and the reasons are getting louder:
Holiday shopping signal | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Expect to spend less than last year | 33% | 44% |
Cutters citing rising living costs | 70% | 76% |
Cutters citing grocery prices | 58% | 67% |
Plan to shop online on Black Friday | 71% | 69% |
Find deals through AI tools | 10% | 11% |
Say AI help affects where they buy | 8% | 4% |
Watch the last two rows. Shoppers are using ChatGPT and Gemini to hunt for deals, but fewer of them let AI decide where the money goes. Rodgers' advice to retailers is to make offers clear enough for AI to find and describe accurately.
How can a dealership prove its holiday deal is real?
Show the math. Retailers selling sweaters and TVs are stuck defending percentages. Dealers have months of real transaction data and a long track record of real year-end discounting. If a store padded prices the way shoppers suspect retailers do, Paul pointed out, "we would get lambasted."
So use that history in the ad itself. Build a holiday campaign that dares shoppers to ask ChatGPT whether your price beats your own last nine months, and publish your pricing clearly enough that the answer comes back in your favor.
Shoppers already use AI to find the deal. Give them a reason to trust the one they find at your store.
Where the deal price can finally be the price
When every banner on the internet reads like a regular Tuesday, a dealer with a provable year-end number has a rare advantage: the shopper can verify it. Skepticism is high, budgets are thin, and the store that answers both with evidence earns the visit.
Watch Episode 1500 of the Automotive State of the Union for our full breakdown of the Drive Research survey and what it means for your holiday ads.
