The 10-Second Version (AI Summary)
What happened: Rivian expects to hit an autonomy milestone this year that unlocks $250 million from Uber, while R2 pushed deliveries to a record.
Why it matters: Driverless R2s are slated for Uber's network in 2028, joining Waymo and Tesla in a fast-moving race.
What to do: Watch how your local market feels about robotaxis. Public comfort will set the pace as much as the tech.
AI-generated and reviewed by the ASOTU team.
Plenty of us are fine climbing into a driverless car as a taxi. Sharing the main roads with them feels different. None of us asked to live on a tech company's test track.
The catch is that a robotaxi is the car on the main road, and that tension sits under today's Rivian news, which we covered on today's episode of the Automotive State of the Union.
What does Rivian's road to robotaxis look like?
CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters that Rivian is "very confident" it will hit the autonomy milestone tied to Uber's next $250 million before year-end. Here's how the rest of the plan lines up.
Q3 2026: R2 outsells the R1 SUV, R1 pickup, and delivery van in its first full quarter, lifting deliveries to a record 19,248.
By year-end 2026: The autonomy milestone unlocks Uber's $250 million tranche.
2027: Cheaper R2 trims arrive, starting at $45,000. The first Volkswagen vehicle running Rivian tech, a low-cost EV for Europe, is due.
2028: Driverless R2 robotaxis launch on Uber's network in a couple of cities.
About 18 months later: Roughly 25 cities.
Through 2031: Uber invests up to $1.25 billion, released against autonomy milestones.
Rivian cut cost of goods sold per vehicle by more than $12,000 from Q2.
The company still loses money on every car it sells, but the trend is moving fast. Its Volkswagen joint venture added $354 million in Q3 software revenue, and VW will also license the technology behind Rivian's AI assistant.
"[D]ropping 12K per vehicle is legit, and if they can keep that pace up, they're gonna get profitable pretty quickly."
Can Rivian catch Waymo and Tesla before 2028?
Waymo and Tesla are putting robotaxis on the road at a staggering pace. On one Sunday drive into Nashville's inner core, we counted 12 Waymos in a short stretch. Two more years of that pace in major cities makes 2028 look late, even though the market is still early. Uber could change the math by keeping competitors off its network and giving Rivian a head start there.
We still think Rivian will be a player for a long time. The question for everyone else on the road is how quickly these test tracks become everyday streets. The full conversation is on today's episode.
