October Winners and Losers, 2023 Cybertruck, Waymo At The Airport

November 2, 2022
Welcome to Wednesday as we go through the winners and losers of the October sales figures. We also talk about new information about the Cybertruck production dates, as well as the reason you might start seeing more Waymo vehicles at the Phoenix Airport.
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Carvana announced the closure it’s Dealer Marketplace in a letter sent to Dealer-customers dated October 31, 2022

  • Program will end in 30 days, Dealer listings will stay up until then

October sales figures show that there are some big winners and losers as Toyota surged 28% cumulatively across its brands. Subaru is up 32% Mazda 30%. American Honda is down 16%

  • At Toyota, the biggest winners were ​​the Camry +68%, RAV4 +40% ; and Tacoma +44%
  • Toyota had a 20 day supply at end of month

Reuters reports that Tesla will begin early production of the long awaited Cybertruck in the middle of 2023 with mass production commencing by the end of 2023 according to sources with knowledge of the matter.

  • Musk announced the early production date range in the last investor call, but mass production beginning late in the year means Tesla won’t be recording revenue on the vehicle until 2024
  • There are hundreds of thousands on the waitlist while Tesla has stopped pre-orders outside North America with Musk citing “ we have more orders of the first Cybertrucks than we could possibly fulfill for three years after the start of production."
  • Final pricing or the production model have yet to be revealed
  • Potential buyers put down $100 to secure their spot in line…since 2019

Robotaxis operated by Waymo are now making regular passenger trips to the Phoenix airport to become the first ride-hailing service to operate in a complex airport environment

  • Previously they had offered airport trips to employees accompanied by safety drivers
  • Waymo has been operating in Phoenix since 2017 and has a commercial service named Waymo One that uses a combination of vehicles with and without safety drivers and is available to anyone
  • The company traditionally opens new service areas to “trusted testers” who have an NDA. Once the company feels ready, they open those service areas to regularly riders
  • Airport trips account for 20% of all ride hailing which presents an opportunity for significant revenue growth

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SPEAKERS

Kyle Mountsier, Paul Daly


Paul Daly  00:00

Well welcome to Wednesday, November 2, we have some good stuff to talk about today. Carvanha closed their dealer marketplace, all of a sudden, October numbers, cyber trucks come in sometime in the very very far future I think ambition sorry for the people said it looks like it's from the future. And route people never realized that you want to actually get to see it until the future


Kyle Mountsier  00:50

it actually will always live in the future. If you get the kind of word play there, you understand what I mean. Especially in the future is never today. So yeah, whatever. Yeah, yeah. Real quick, did you know that there's this thing on Google? That you're scoring literally, in the search bar that if you're on a desktop, you can just hit? I'm feeling lucky and just some chi crazy random comes up?


Paul Daly  01:21

I've never done that. I've seen it. It's absolutely fun.


Kyle Mountsier  01:25

I you know, it's like every couple months, I remember that it's there because I never really like actually go to Google don't see anymore. Anything. I don't see any you don't see it. You gotta go to google.com Oh, okay. Calm and then and then like you hover over it. And it


Paul Daly  01:43

scrolls. Kyle. I got ice cream near me. Yeah, as it knows. I got way too much.


Kyle Mountsier  01:54

I got ingenuity a spacecraft on NASA's Mars Exploration Program. Who knew they, you know, landed back on February 18. Of 2021. Hey, wait, we're full of insights this morning. Yeah,


Paul Daly  02:12

that we didn't even know. Honestly, I prefer the ice cream near me. For for a lot of fun things going on. I want to let you know remind you that we have a new podcast that just dropped called in the dirt. You can search in the dirt with a SOTU. On any of your podcast platforms, we're having a ton of fun on that it is literally just freestyling when we're on the ground with dealers, industry partners, and we just decided to make a podcast and have some really great album art. So if you're not wired like listening, I


Kyle Mountsier  02:40

think there's nine episodes out and if you listen at one and a half speed, which they're okay at that, I think you can get them all done in like 48 minutes. Don't quote me on that. But we'll just say that's a roundabout.


Paul Daly  02:49

If you have a drive, so perfect. Listen for a drive of any length, really. And you get lots


Kyle Mountsier  02:56

of use and inputs and different like way, you know, it's not just like one stream. So you get that kind of like yeah,


Paul Daly  03:02

we keep it simple, right? Get in, get out not all this banter that we do on this show, right? It's like, Hey, this is this person. What do you think? What do you see is happening? Well, speaking of


Kyle Mountsier  03:11

getting in and getting out segue I just had to get into it. Because you know, years ago, just a couple years ago started to announce their dealer marketplace a little bit before the print pandemic, it got premiered in New York, we actually know one of the like the pilot people that started at Todd Caputo good friend of the family, he had a couple of comments that Paul will share just about kind of what's happening. But they sent out a letter to all of their dealer partners that are currently on their dealer marketplace. It was essentially a third party listings platform for dealers to kind of like put aged inventory or really any inventory on the Carvana platform and have another sales opportunity there another outreach opportunity. But they announced that they have 30 days left on that platform that at the end of November will be gone. No more dealer can't


Paul Daly  04:07

list anything new. Yeah. I mean, the program was this if you weren't aware of it. I mean, it was kind of big news back a couple of years ago, that that Carvanha was listing dealer inventory on their site to sell like to retail vehicles that I can't remember they call that like a Carvana affiliate dealer, but it came with all the same warranties and Carvanha was buying these cars from dealers at retail. And then they moved into this kind of this marketplace where you could sell dealers could actually buy and sell used cars with Carvanha and one another to right. It was like a third party marketplace for use cars for wholesale. That was before they bought a DESA and you know, I think one of the biggest issues with this is that you know that this is where dealers were putting their aged inventory, right it was kind of like last chance saloon. This is where we're gonna put the cars if we can't sell them or there's something wrong with them or the markets not dictating at You know, honestly, they just probably couldn't figure out a way to make money with this probably expensive and run a lot of people to run it. But what's really going on today


Kyle Mountsier  05:06

is, like a lot of people that I've heard have said, you know, over the last like four or five months as the stock price has plummeted, and now around $15 is people are people were saying, Hey, I bet you their next move is leaning into the marketplace, right like that. That was some speculation in the industry, like they're gonna lean in there, because they're struggling with inventory management, they're just gonna be nope, kick that holding down the curve. Everyone go associated with it, apparently, according to some inside sources that we've gotten that we've gotten to. And so now it's gone. And it's interesting, because, like, I had someone say to me yesterday, I was texting with someone who will be name unnamed. And their kind of perspective on this was like, Well, I think we got enough data to know exactly what car dealers are doing. It's like, conspiracy theory.


Paul Daly  06:00

It is I definitely don't think they're that forward thinking I really do. They thought it was going to be trying to build a bridge between all the inventory really was what it was, it was an inventory bridge. So how can we leverage dealer inventory to meet the retail demand that we've generated because of good branding and good marketing and things like that? You know, now that they want to DESA the scale even imagine the amount of cars, they need to sell just the carry the debt service. I mean, it's just phenomenal. And they have to make money on those cars. And in this environment, like it's just such a roller coaster. So like, being the holder of the inventory just seems like the losing the losing. And especially if you're having trouble reconditioning them fast enough, offering the seven, they think you're still offering a seven day buyback policy on cars, that you may not really even seem you didn't return them. And so if that car comes back, it's got to come back. It's got to be held again, you have to recon you have to photograph it now. It's like, it's just sitting there. And these days, it's just sitting there like losing money. It's just appreciating, appreciating, appreciating. So a little a little new development. Things come things go speaking of coming and going. Anyway, that'll work. That'll work. Let's take a October sales figures are out from most automakers that report and there's some big winners and big losers, Toyota surged 28%, cumulatively across the brands, Toyota and Lexus. So Toyota, actually, the Toyota brand was up like 34%. And let's call that a little bit.


Kyle Mountsier  07:34

They've got inventory again, because yeah, it's just pent up demand. I'm calling it


Paul Daly  07:39

though, for sure. Cameras were up 68%. Right. We know there was big sedan, dry rat for a 40% Tacoma up 44%. I mean, you could not find a Tacoma to save your life for the last 12 months. So they obviously have some out.


Kyle Mountsier  07:54

Yeah, what's crazy is like it's across the board for Toyota, you know that. It's just wild Toyota and Lexus to see that. And, and then Toyota, like they only had a 20 day supply still at the end of the month. So it's not like they just completely open up the pipeline. They've still got a tight supply. They're managing demand, well, levelheaded, we'll call it.


Paul Daly  08:17

That's the Toyota Toyota's just doing it. Some other winners or losers, Subaru is up 30% 32% I'm sorry, Mazda kicking up at 30% The Biggest Loser on the list American Honda is down 16% They actually adjusted saying they only are going to hit like 75% of their production goals I think for the last year, month or two so they're obviously have some struggles the game the game is all about how you can manage getting inventory throughput and you know, it's just still a very fragile supply chain. So one thing goes wrong. And that's going to like really immediately impact impact your stuff. automotives reports Lance Wolfer, head of US sales for Honda told dealers in a memo the company's fourth quarter production run at 75% lower than anticipated part shortages, other shipping and logistics challenges. And as a result, this is the this is the one is going to hurt some dealer allocations in November and December may slide into early 2023.


Kyle Mountsier  09:13

Man, I know the dealers are like again, no.


Paul Daly  09:19

It's like the balloon deflating sound going into the last two months of the year. But the dealers we know that our Honda dealers, they always figure out how to make they're gonna be fine. Like they are speaking it's 2023 Wrong button speaking it's only 23


Kyle Mountsier  09:35

everyone who listens to the show got that like weird feeling in their stomach like wait, we'll wait. It's over.


Paul Daly  09:40

So we're already there. We're getting there. Reuters reports that Tesla will begin early production of the long awaited cybertruck In the middle of 2023 with mass production commencing at the end of 2023 According to sources with knowledge of the matter, you know on the last last investor Carl Musk said you know, by the end of 2023, they're going to be starting mass production, this new insight source as well, early production to the start in 2023. They have hundreds of 1000s of people on the waitlist, so many that Tesla snaps pre orders outside of North America and said, Get this. We have more orders than we could possibly fulfill for three years after the start of production. Can you a long line?


Kyle Mountsier  10:26

That's unbelievable. I just can't imagine having. I mean, I think Hummers dealing with the same thing right now, I guess so much activity and attention on something that you can't even, like Fathom producing in a calendar year. What would that look like? What what Apple would be like? Here's the new iPhone, y'all. It's gonna be a couple years before you get


Paul Daly  10:49

people, people wouldn't be having that they wouldn't be having, you know, I mean, the cybertruck this start this this, if you remember van, it was 2019. Yes, talk is 2019. When they announced the picture, they show the picture. I mean, ban. So it was 2023. It's crazy a year ago that Joe Roth has showed it, you know, the thing about oh my gosh, was that a year ago, you think about all like how exciting your fan base or brand base or whatever you want to call it is willing to stay over that long of a period for a product that is I mean, this thing better be freaking awesome. Like, like this


Kyle Mountsier  11:25

is this is breaking news, Paul, also what what Elon has said this is super breaking news. I know I'm the only one with access to it. They're actually going to do the they're going to do the first line reveal of the first one rolling off the line on Vine. It's going to be the very first fine. Ah,


Paul Daly  11:47

that would be that would be killer. That would be killer. We didn't cover that story. But


Kyle Mountsier  11:52

and here's the cybertruck Sorry. You know,


Paul Daly  11:57

Vine vine was a six second video platform, right? I mean, it was very ahead of its time. And it kind of is the the grit the godfather of all the modern, quick media that we consume at the time. Like it was just Twitter with just tweets. Well, Twitter's kind of like what it is today. It never really adapted much. But Instagram was just pictures. Right? There was no tic TOCs no reels. And then vine was like short videos, all those people became YouTubers. They've gone back around YouTube shorts and tick talkers. And now maybe they'll all come back to bite us. We should polish a long track. It's all gonna polish up our six second content game video deal. Yeah, we just got to be ready to hit that sucker when it hits. But I mean a big difference between the cybertruck and the Hummer is the cybertruck back when they announced that it was they were saying it could be as cheap as 30 It was like 39 Nine for an entry level cyber truck ride I bet entry level is going to be somewhere in the know the highest the highest the most expensive one with three motors and sell full self driving was like 80 that'll probably be closer to 90 something I don't know. I think Tesla might surprise us with a sub $50,000 Cyber tribution


Kyle Mountsier  13:03

maybe not with that Equinox


Paul Daly  13:10

that's gonna be a tough decision. Or the equinox looks good but things kind of weird. Oh man. I think one of the coolest features of the cybertruck is that it's got a third seat in the front that's true seats across the front that's pretty That's old school look I have always arrived like


Kyle Mountsier  13:28

bring it back to work truck. Yeah, I'm


Paul Daly  13:31

listening was sat in the middle, especially if it was like a stick shift and the person's like, gotta like sit there and ship that.


Kyle Mountsier  13:40

And that was my my whole memory of the truck is like it's only a cab right for some reason. We have the stinkiest thing in the back for every time in that truck.


Paul Daly  13:52

It's just terrible. Yeah. Oh, I know. Like all of this knowledge is covered up remember those woven fabric seats? It was almost like two it was like a woven seat. It was


Kyle Mountsier  14:02

grandma's couch. You know?


Paul Daly  14:06

My grandma's couch had like a thick layer of plastic over it your plastic wrap couches. We've prioritized comfort in the 2020


Kyle Mountsier  14:16

What speaking of prioritizing comfort segue. So sideways, anyone realized but it's Wednesday. And for some reason, um, there has gotten a hold of us. Straight sideways. Hey, look, we've got some customers and we've got some passengers that may be prioritizing some level of comfort. I don't know if it's extremely comfortable but Robo taxis operated by YMO are now making regular passenger trips to the Phoenix Airport to become the first ride hailing service to operate in a complex airport environment. So you've got airport trips that are are being done by complete Robo taxis going into an airport environment with high traffic demos been in the Phoenix area of since 2017. But they're going to be operating with passenger trucks for passenger trips for the very first time. Paul, I, I just don't know if I'm ready for that person.


Paul Daly  15:14

I have to see it to believe it. I mean, I see my experience in self driving vehicles is that they're indecisive. When it comes to a point when they have to merge lanes, or there's another car round. They just get all like, and it's, yeah, and they don't know what to do. And I feel like that the trigger reaction when they feel that way or personifying AI right now, when they feel that way, is that they slow down, and they move slower, and my anxiety goes through the roof, like you should be moving faster right now. And if you've been to an airport, you know, like, I don't see a passenger getting anywhere near that drop off lane that sometimes is like three lanes over. Without like, a little aggressive driving, right? Like there's a lot of eye contact that goes on like, Hey, you might go in there you go in there. You got Harrington we've never been


Kyle Mountsier  16:01

to Phoenix Airport. Like our experience is I'm thinking like Atlanta about story never gonna happen.


Paul Daly  16:08

Yeah, Chicago? Nope. Billy, no, maybe Atlanta, it work in Syracuse. Work in Nashville, they find in Syracuse. So they use they have a program called trusted testers where people actually sign an NDA, and they can't talk about their experience. And, you know, they roll that out first, and then they roll it out to the general public. But hey, in some areas of Phoenix, you can you can hail a wave of vehicle. It'll show up. No driver pick you up and take you where you want to go. We're going to be in Phoenix, I think in January.


Kyle Mountsier  16:40

I think maybe in January. That's right. Yeah. Yeah.


Paul Daly  16:43

I think we need to we need to make sure we're gearing up to track one of these down and and take a ride and we'll interview the driver and say, Where did you buy your last car? Right? Well show an empty seat back to us. Back to you. All right. Well, if if you don't realize we got sideways on Wednesday, you weren't even paying attention. But the point of all of that is we live in a fun time in a fun industry. And we can enjoy the good things while get some work


17:08

done.